Sunday, February 27, 2011

Final Oscar Predictions

some of these might be slightly different than in my initial posts.

Animated Short
Will win: Day & Night
Should win: Day & Night
Live Short
Will win: God of Love
Should win: ???
Documentary Short
Will win: Strangers No More
Should win: ???
Documentary
Will win: Inside Job
Should win: Inside Job
Foreign Language Film
Will win: In a Better World
Should win: ???
Animated Feature
Will win: Toy Story 3
Should win: Toy Story 3 (or The Illusionist)
Visual Effects
Will win: Inception
Should win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Pt. 1
Sound Editing
Will win: Inception
Should win: Inception
Sound Mixing
Will win: Inception
Should win: The Social Network
Makeup Design
Will win: The Wolfman
Should win: ??
Costume Design
Will win: The King's Speech
Should win: The Tempest
Art Direction
Will win: The King's Speech
Should win: Inception
Should have been nominated: Shutter Island
Song
Will win: "We Belong Together"
Should win: "We Belong Together" OR "Coming Home"
Score
Will win: The Social Network
Should win: The Social Network
Should have been nominated: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Pt. 1
Cinematography
Will win: True Grit
Should win: True Grit (or Inception)
Should have been nominated: Shutter Island
Editing
Will win: The Social Network
Should win: The Social Network
Should have been nominated: Inception
Supporting Actress
Will win: Melissa Leo
Should win: Hailee Steinfeld (or Jacki Weaver, for an actual supporting role)
Should have been nominated: Dianne Wiest for Rabbit Hole
Supporting Actor
Will win: Christian Bale
Should win: Geoffrey Rush
Should have been nominated so that he could have won: Andrew Garfield for The Social Network
Actress
Will win: Natalie Portman
Should win: Annette Bening 
Actor
Will win: Colin Firth
Should win: Colin Firth
Should have been nominated: Ryan Gosling for Blue Valentine
Original Screenplay
Will win: The King's Speech
Should win: The Kids Are All Right or Another Year
Adapted Screenplay
Will win: The Social Network
Should win: The Social Network
Should have been nominated: The Ghost Writer
Director
Will win: David Fincher
Should win: David Fincher
Should have been nominated: Christopher Nolan
Picture
Will win: The King's Speech
Should win: The Social Network
Should have been nominated: Shutter Island, The Ghost Writer, Harry Potter


i've begun to have doubts about TSN winning best score, but i'm sticking to my guns.  that is one category where i'll actually be pretty upset if it doesn't win, because it deserves it.  Also, while i've maintained the frontrunner predictions for Actress, S. Actor, and S. Actress, i'm gonna predict there will be an upset in at least one of those categories (Annette Bening, Geoffrey Rush, or Steinfeld/Weaver/Carter).  i'm still very unsure about Art Direction and Costumes, so i've defaulted to King's Speech.  Also, if all the hype about a King's Speech sweep proves to be unfounded, look for an upset in Original Screenplay as well.

that's it, these are my final best guesses, we'll see what happens tonight.

Saturday, February 26, 2011

Wrapping up

i'm gonna try an power through all the rest of the categories now.

Visual Effects

Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Pt. 1
Hereafter
Inception
Iron Man 2

Iron Man's effects were kind of sloppy, i though, and Alice looked (unintentionally) cartoonish.  Hereafter's nomination is confusing to most people, though it is the one film here i've not seen, so i can't speak well to it.  Suffice it to say, it has basically no chance of winning.  i personally would pick Harry Potter and would select it to win.  However, logic tells me otherwise, so my prediction is for Inception, which also had some pretty outstanding effects, and would make a deserving winner.

Makeup
Barney's Version
The Way Back
The Wolfman
 
The only film here i've seen is The Wolfman, and most predictions say it will win here, which makes sense to me (though i'm always partial to aging makeup like in Barney's Version, will seldom gets to win here, frequently overshadowed by creature designs).  So let's predict Wolfman, though Barney's Version might surprise.

Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland
I Am Love
The King's Speech
The Tempest
True Grit

This category is one of the harder to predict this year, along with Art Direction, because there isn't even a frontrunner and a possible spoiler, but several films that could easily win and deserve it.  The Tempest is the one here i've not seen, but from the trailers, i suspect i would prefer it most in this category.  However, it will likely not win.  This category is a bit of a toss-up between Alice in Wonderland and The King's SpeechI Am Love is a truly outstanding movie, with some nice upper-class Italian dresses that really nail down the characters, but it's too contemporary to actually win here.  True Grit would also be deserving, but it's unlikely.  i'm not totally sure what all the costumes in King's Speech did for the film other than accurately place the period, but it appears to have the edge over the competition, so i'll predict it (though the more i predict for King's Speech, the more likely it seems to sweep, which isn't a thought i like...), but i am partial to the designs in The Tempest, and really all of Julie Taymor's films.

Original Score
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network

How to Train Your Dragon was wonderful, but not really quite a winner, in my mind.  Inception, the same thing.  It had the now kind of iconic BWOMP thing going, but there were several times in the movie where i actually think the music was very distracting.  It's nice that after a decade of snubs, Hans Zimmer is getting recognition again, but this isn't the one to win it again for him.  i think that in 127 Hours, Rahman rips off sounds from a half a dozen other composers, like Zimmer, Rachel Portman, John Williams, even Thomas Newman, and there's one riff that basically sounds like the intro to Eminem's "Lose Yourself" on loop...
Anyway, this appears to be between The King's Speech, going for a sweep and a win for the three-time loser Alexandre Desplat, and The Social Network, which it seems most people think actually deserves to win.  For me, it's not Desplat's score is bad or weak, it's actually quite appropriate for the film...but i think he wrote two other scores this year that were actually better and he wasn't nominated for them - The Ghost Writer and HP7.  Also, i'd be surprised if anyone actually believes this was the best score of the year.  The Social Network's score created an entire mood and atmosphere for the film that would have been totally different with a soundtrack or something lighter.  It's a tremendous piece of work, and deserves to win here, and i think that it actually will hold off the surge from The King's Speech, so i predict The Social Network.

Best Actor
Javier Bardem - Biutiful
Jeff Bridges - True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network
Colin Firth - The King's Speech
James Franco - 127 Hours

i've still be unable to find Biutiful to watch somewhere, so i can't speak about Bardem here, though i suspect he is excellent as always.  That said, this really is Firth's to lose.  Some people criticize that, thinking it's just making up for losing last year, but let's be honest, he is absolutely phenomenal here.  It's a much smaller, more detailed and nuanced performance than the naysayers are giving it credit for.  James Franco and Jeff Bridges did good work, but i suspect that there are possibly other actors who could have given performances of a similar caliber.  Eisenberg was really just as good as Firth and would also deserve to win, and as some have pointed out, he actually had a much more challenging role, in terms of playing an unlikable protagonist and getting the audience's sympathy without necessarily making him more likable.  Firth's sympathy factor was built in - Oh, he's got a stammer.  Aw, everyone is looking at him.  Oh my, his daddy's mean to him.  So in that respect, Eisenberg's accomplishment might be more notable.  But the prediction has to be for Firth.  In any other year, Eisenberg.

Best Original Screenplay
Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech

This will probably go to The King's SpeechInception has the best chance at an upset here, if people are feeling a lot of support for the film and still upset about Nolan missing a director nod.  personally, i'd like to see it go to Another Year or The Kids Are All Right, but can see that's unlikely (although this will sadly be Another Year's writer Mike Leigh's seventh Oscar loss).  Plus, The King's Speech has an excellent screenplay, and it wouldn't be the worst thing ever if it wins.

Best Director
Darren Aronofsky - Black Swan
Joel and Ethan Coen - True Grit
David Fincher - The Social Network
Tom Hooper - The King's Speech
David O. Russell - The Fighter

Here is yet another question of King's Speech and Social Network.  At this point, it's just unclear as to how big King's Speech will win.  Actor, obviously, Picture and Screenplay, probably, but Art Direction?  Cosumes?  Sound Mixing?  Supporting Actor?  Supporting Actress even?  It could go either way in almost every category.  i think David Fincher is going to keep his place here.  He's well respected, and people want to give him an award.  There's also the idea that Hooper was less essential to his film than Fincher was to his.  And plus, in times of doubt, it's helpful to remember that Fincher really actually did do the best direction of the year.  So, prediction and preference: David Fincher

Best Picture
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

First off, in my opinion, Winter's Bone, 127 Hours, and The Fighter shouldn't even be here.  They should be replaced by Shutter Island, The Ghost Writer, and Harry Potter.  But whatever, i can't fix that.  This is the question of The King's Speech and The Social Network, and if The Social Network can get enough support to come from behind with the upset.  i've seen a few websites that did the math and predicted a Social Network upset with almost absolute certainty.  It has something to do with the way they do the math with the ballots - if Social Network gets enough #1 rankings and enough #2 rankings, and The King's Speech doesn't get enough #2 rankings, then, well, who knows?

To be clear, i loved The King's Speech, i thought it was an exceptional film, just not the best of the year.  And considering how few Best Of lists it made, a lot of people actually didn't think so either.  So i'm not sure how it got here as the frontrunner, except that it was well-made, and it sure does make you feel happy, doesn't it?  So, i'll predict The King's Speech because i'm not as confident in all the intricacies involved with an upset, though my preference is obviously for The Social Network, and i'll be extra thrilled if it deservedly wins, considering, you know, it actually is the best movie of the year. 


now, on to the awards that are practically impossible to get all right!

Best Documentary Feature
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Gasland
Inside Job
Restrepo
Waste Land

i've seen Exit Through the Gift Shop, and intend to watch some of the others tonight and tomorrow.  From what i've read on this category, a lot of people are predicting Inside Job, but saying that Exit Through the Gift Shop is the best one.  Considering that this is one of the categories where you have to have seen all 5 nominees in order to vote (as are the rest of the categories i'm gonna get to here), i suspect that if people are saying one is the best, that that is the one most people will vote for.  So i'm gonna predict Exit Through the Gift Shop.

Best Documentary Short
Killing in the Name
Poster Girl
Strangers No More
Sun Come Up
The Warriors of Quigang

Uh, Strangers No More.  Because someone else said so.

Best Foreign Language Film
Biutiful
Dogtooth
In a Better World
Incendies
Outside the Law

Again, i've not seen any of these (but i'll try to at least watch one before tomorrow).  In a Better World appears to be the favorite, but this category is notorious for surprise winnersSo i'm not positive what will happen.

Best Animated Short
Day & Night  (you know, it's the one that played before Toy Story 3)
The Gruffalo
Let's Pollute
The Lost Thing
Madagascar, carnet de voyage

Well i've seen Day & Night and i've seen The Gruffalo, and i thought Day & Night was better, so let's go with that.

Best Live Action Short
The Confession
The Crush
God of Love
Na wewe
Wish 143

God of Love.  Because i heard it somewhere.


So, all right, that's all.  i'll post again summarizing my predictions/preferences, and some tallies.  Peace.

Monday, February 21, 2011

Keepin' on keepin' on

and here's some more for ya.

Sound Editing
(again, i believe this is the category about actual aesthetic sound design)

Inception
Toy Story 3
Tron: Legacy
True Grit
Unstoppable

i've now seen all the movies here, but i must admit Tron and Unstoppable were good, but not dvd quality bootlegs.  Regardless, i doubt either have a real shot at winning here.  True Grit did win a guild award a couple days ago, but i doubt it will actually win here - a wider set of voters will reward it in cinematography and possible supporting actress.  My pick would be for Toy Story 3.  7 of the last 8 Pixar films have been nominated in this category, and only The Incredibles won.  i find it baffling that films that literally have to create and record every single sound we hear (aside from dialogue) do not win more often.  That said, Inception is the most critically acclaimed of the technical wonders this year, and will likely win here.  Like many of the categories this year, a well-deserved probable win, but not the one i'd most like to see. 

That said, the sound categories are notoriously difficult to predict, and i'm even starting to have doubts about the Sound Mixing prediction i made earlier....i'm starting to think either True Grit or The Social Network have a chance at an upset there.  But this one should be squarely in Inception's corner.

Song
"Coming Home" from Country Strong
"I See the Light" from Tangled
"If I Rise" from 127 Hours
"We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3

This is another tough one.  i haven't actually seen Country Strong or Tangled, but that's less important in this category.  Having listened through all the songs today, i have to admit i find "I See the Light" to be a little simplistic and cheesy, not likely to actually win i don't think.  i understand that for a while "If I Rise" was the frontrunner here....but honestly, that song is terrible.  It is dull and lethargic.  There's a chance people are looking for a chance to reward the film somewhere, but i can't imagine many people actually think this the best song from movies this year.  i admit bias here in that i have a passionate grudge against A.R. Rahman for beating Thomas Newman and Wall-E and i can't abide the thought of him winning a 3rd and/or 4th Oscar this year.  At least this time the lyrics are in one language... 

It looks to me like this is between "Coming Home" and "We Belong Together."  Honestly, i don't mind if either win - i think if people actually listen to the music, there's a chance for "Coming Home" which is actually a really good song, but more likely i think is Randy Newman (on his 20th nomination with only 1 win), the chance to give Toy Story 3 more than just one win in Animated Picture, and the really really good and fun song that is "We Belong Together."


(I'm holding off on Best Score until i have the chance to listen through the whole score for Inception on Youtube like i have for the other nominees.)

Best Actress
Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman - Black Swan
Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine

Lawrence totally carried her film, but she's young and there are better in the category this year.  Williams was very good but the film's too small, and this just isn't here year.  Kidman's already won, and she needs to do a few more good performances like this before she'll actually get to win again.  This is clearly a race between Portman and Bening.  Portman is obviously the frontrunner, and she will probably not suffer the upset from Bening.  However, Bening has more previous nominations (3 to Portman's 1), and there is criticism of Portman's performance as too "showy," while Bening creates a nuanced, emotional performance of a person who seems like she might actually exist in the real world.  My pick would be Bening, as i think it legitimately is the better performance, but i have to predict Portman as i don't see the upset as very likely.  Portman was excellent, don't get me wrong, and this won't go down in history as a great mistake on the Academy's part, but i do think it's not the most deserving win.

Adapted Screenplay
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

The Social Network, all the way.  i cannot imagine there being such a backlash against this movie that it loses this category.  That's what people thought about Up in the Air last year, i know, but this has got to be even more of a lock.  Somehow Sorkin wrote A Few Good Men, The American President, and Charlie Wilson's War without ever getting nominated, and he's gonna make up for it here with the best screenplay not only of this year but of the last several years.  Sorkin and Firth (for best actor) have got to be the two most locked locks of the year.

Next categories

Art Direction
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Pt. 1
Inception
The King's Speech
True Grit

Honestly, i can imagine any one of these winning.  The King's Speech is riding a wave of support in general, but i still don't imagine it pulling a total sweep, and it doesn't really deserve the win here.  Alice in Wonderland i feel the same about as i did with Avatar last year - i can't tell where the visual effects end and the art direction begins...it seems like most of the credit should belong with the special effects teams than the designers, and the designs honestly didn't really do much for me - most of the time i thought they were just trying to do too much visually with this movie, and the effect was to come off jumbled and mismatched - it really is a pretty ugly movie.  True Grit got 10 nominations, which is a lot, and people are wondering if that means it'll get some surprise wins in these types of categories.  i don't see it happening here, since the art direction demands here seems fairly simple for a period piece.  My personal preference is for Harry Potter to win here, though i doubt it will happen - i'm keeping my fingers crossed for part 2 next year to finally win a few for the franchise.  For my money, i think Inception is the likely and very deserving winner.  Several dream worlds, all distinct and imaginative, from the Japanese castle to the James Bond-esque snow fort, from the hotel to Cobb and Mal's "memory lane," consistent, effective work.  i'll predict Inception will pull it out, but a King's Speech sweep could make me eat my words.

Cinematography
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

This is really up between Inception and True Grit.  It seems to me that the camera in Black Swan was a little too focused on making sure we didn't see Natalie Portman's legs while she danced, and that got on my nerves.  A lot of people will find the odd composition and framing of The King's Speech to be a little too, i dunno, calling attention to itself, to merit a win.  The Social Network had some tremendous photography, but i don't think anyone really credits the camera it for the success of the movie as much as Fincher's being behind it.  True Grit had some great work from the now 9-time Oscar nominee (never the winner) Roger Deakins, but i've gotta be honest, i'm not sure it's his best work and he did have the template of the first movie for several sequences...  My pick would be Inception, again citing the juggling of several different feels and looks of the various dream environments, but also the different sorts of narratives - photographing action in world and suspense in another, and always giving the viewer just enough info on the screen to not overload us.  Not to mention the floating/rolling hotel sequences which still totally blow my mind.  My preference: Inception, but i'm still gonna predict that True Grit and Roger Deakins get the sympathy/career respect vote, and the desire to reward the movie with a statue or two.  And it's not like this would be an undeserving win, just not the one i personally would go for.  (i still say Inglourious Basterds should have had it over Avatar last year...)

Film Editing
Black Swan
The Fighter
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network

Again, i think Black Swan was trying to conceal things from us (like Natalie Portman's legs... not like plot things).  I'm shocked to see 127 Hours here if only because that tri-fold thing they did was so enormously distracting - totally calling attention to the post-prod, and just clawing at ways to make the movie more interesting or visceral - really bugged me.  The King's Speech...not sure that the editing did much here, and same for The Fighter - both were really just piecing the story together effectively.  My preference and prediction are both for The Social Network here - the editing here really propels the narrative - it turned shouldabeen boring scenes like uploading photos into heists - it helped keep a 160-page script not only under 2 hrs, but really interesting and compelling and exciting and totally coherent all at the same time.  This just seems like an obvious call to me.


Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale - The Fighter
John Hawkes - Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner - The Town
Mark Ruffalo - The Kid's Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech

John Hawkes will not win, as his nomination was a surprise and it likely took the place of Andrew Garfield who not only should have been nominated, but should have pulled an upset win for giving one of the best performances of the whole dang year in The Social Network.  Also, Jeremy Renner was very good, but not really mind-blowing i didn't think - it's just a Boston spin on the Joe Pesci thing.  Mark Ruffalo is a very likable actor who played a very likable character and, at least to me, somehow gave a really annoying performance.  i should have liked him (despite the story about him sleeping with the married lesbian), but i just found him really annoying and aggravating at times.

This is really a race between Bale, the frontrunner, and Rush, possibly pulling the come-from-behind upset riding The King's Speech wave.  i have to admit, i have never like Christian Bale as an actor, i find something about him really annoying.  i will not deny that he gave an exceptional performance in The Fighter, a film i didn't really care for either.  However, it's a really flashy, showy performance, and i'd just personally like to see performances awarded where the acting goes on a little more below the surface.  i think that Rush deserves this win over Bale - consider that without Rush, the entire premise of The King's Speech is blank.  Not just his character, but his performance - if his performance were anything less than what it was, the movie would have flopped, or at least not been as successful as it is, because no one would have known why they were watching it.  If we're going to reward Firth for a movie that is essentially about a friendship, how can we not reward the other half of the relationship?  However, i cannot in conscience make an actual prediction for Rush, as that really would be the upset of the year - Bale has been winning everything, he's never been nominated though he's enormously respected, plus it's a chance (along with supp. actress) to reward The Fighter since it won't get anything else.  Prediction: Bale, preference: Rush.  (i'll be excited to get this prediction wrong.)

Friday, February 18, 2011

First Round of Oscar Nominations

So i'm gonna go through categories for which i've seen all of the nominated films, and work on finishing up some of the other movies so i can have discussions/predictions/preferences in all the major categories.  So let's start out with a few categories i've seen all the way through, in no particular order.

Sound Mixing
Inception
The King's Speech
Salt
The Social Network
True Grit

First, a brief note on this category.  Basically, "sound mixing" refers to the compilation of all sound effects in a film, from music and dialogue to ambient noise and sound effects.  "Sound editing" is the actual creation and construction of sound effects, either with computer audio effects or foley recording, etc.  Again this is very basic, but this category is about the overall putting together of the sound in the film, while sound editing is more about the sounds themselves.  They're both actually very important fields, it's just hard to be actively aware of that while watching a good movie.

Now, i'm not 100% sure why The King's Speech has a nomination here, as that audio all seemed pretty straightforward.  The Social Network and True Grit had a little more to do, but again, sound wasn't exactly a driving technical element for those movies.  That leaves Salt and Inception.  i saw Salt, i thought it was fun and entertaining and the sound design is definitely important , but even in technical categories, the Oscars tend to reward average movies with nominations and not awards, so i think Inception is the clear favorite here.  Also, Inception kind of deserves it - it had to juggle a whole lot of moving parts and the sound helped a lot with the transitions around time and space.


Supporting Actress
Amy Adams - The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter - The King's Speech
Melissa Leo - The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit
Jacki Weaver - Animal Kingdom

Melissa Leo is still the frontrunner, but she has a lot of obstacles stacked against her.  1) Splitting votes with Amy Adams, who is also an admired previous nominee. 2) Jacki Weaver, who is outstanding in her film and competing with Leo for the "worst mother of the year" award in movies. 3) Helena Bonham Carter, who will surely get votes riding the wave of The King's Speech popularity.  and perhaps most importantly 4) Hailee Steinfeld, who, though in the wrong category, gives a better performance and a more vital performance to her film - plus i think voters will probably want to reward True Grit with more than just cinematography.

Leo was wonderful, and i like a lot of her work recently (including the tv show Treme, and i'm looking forward to her work next to Kate Winslet in Mildred Pierce), and if she wins, i won't be sad or disappointed, it will be well-earned.  i don't think Carter really deserves to be here - she's a great actress with a lot of versatility, but her performance here wasn't really all that special to me.  It was serviceable, but i feel like a dozen other actresses could have played the role and achieved the same success.  Adams was also very good, but again, i felt like other actresses could have done something similar.  i was floored by Weaver, and would love to see her win here just because that would be really cool, but i have to acknowledge that it probably won't happen.  All that said, Steinfeld was really the standout here and i think she deserves the trophy - Oscars aren't totally opposed to rewarding young talent, either - let's not forgot Academy Award winner Anna Paquin (Best Supporting Actress for X-Men The Piano).  So my prediction is still Melissa Leo, with a strong chance of a Steinfeld spoiler, and while my preference is for Steinfeld, either would be deserving wins.


Best Animated Feature
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

This category is hardly even a question, Toy Story 3 will win, and should win.  i enjoyed How to Train Your Dragon a lot, but we've seen so many examples now of how animated movies can elevate the format to something greater and with more depth than mere entertainment.  Sure, it had a nice message about coming together and understanding differences, but it had a couple of pretty frustrating plot issues and it just didn't resonate quite as well with me.  Good movie, yes.  Oscar winning animated film?  Probably not.  (side note: i'm curious about how there will be a How to Train Your Dragon 2 since they already trained all the dragons...)    

Okay and then there's the issue of The Illusionist.  Look y'all, i hated this movie.  i hated it because it was so awesome.  i just couldn't handle it, it ended up being just way too emotional and heartbreaking and awesome and hopeful, and i still don't know what to do about it.  So there.  It won't win because it's a little too obscure, but imagine if the emotional impact at the end of Toy Story 3 was repackaged into something a little more resembling real life... you don't want to, because you couldn't handle that either.

So yes, Toy Story 3 for the win, great movie, great adventure, and it was phase one of my farewell to my childhood.  Phase two commences this summer with HP7 Part 2...


So yes, that's the first 3 categories.  i'll be back soon with 3 or 4 more.  (i still need to watch some more movies for Visual Effects, Sound Editing, Makeup, Costumes, Song, Actor, and Original Screenplay, but i have all the others.)  see ya soon.