Animated Short
Will win: Day & Night
Should win: Day & Night
Live Short
Will win: God of Love
Should win: ???
Documentary Short
Will win: Strangers No More
Should win: ???
Documentary
Will win: Inside Job
Should win: Inside Job
Foreign Language Film
Will win: In a Better World
Should win: ???
Animated Feature
Will win: Toy Story 3
Should win: Toy Story 3 (or The Illusionist)
Visual Effects
Will win: Inception
Should win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Pt. 1
Sound Editing
Will win: Inception
Should win: Inception
Sound Mixing
Will win: Inception
Should win: The Social Network
Makeup Design
Will win: The Wolfman
Should win: ??
Costume Design
Will win: The King's Speech
Should win: The Tempest
Art Direction
Will win: The King's Speech
Should win: Inception
Should have been nominated: Shutter Island
Song
Will win: "We Belong Together"
Should win: "We Belong Together" OR "Coming Home"
Score
Will win: The Social Network
Should win: The Social Network
Should have been nominated: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Pt. 1
Cinematography
Will win: True Grit
Should win: True Grit (or Inception)
Should have been nominated: Shutter Island
Editing
Will win: The Social Network
Should win: The Social Network
Should have been nominated: Inception
Supporting Actress
Will win: Melissa Leo
Should win: Hailee Steinfeld (or Jacki Weaver, for an actual supporting role)
Should have been nominated: Dianne Wiest for Rabbit Hole
Supporting Actor
Will win: Christian Bale
Should win: Geoffrey Rush
Should have been nominated so that he could have won: Andrew Garfield for The Social Network
Actress
Will win: Natalie Portman
Should win: Annette Bening
Actor
Will win: Colin Firth
Should win: Colin Firth
Should have been nominated: Ryan Gosling for Blue Valentine
Original Screenplay
Will win: The King's Speech
Should win: The Kids Are All Right or Another Year
Adapted Screenplay
Will win: The Social Network
Should win: The Social Network
Should have been nominated: The Ghost Writer
Director
Will win: David Fincher
Should win: David Fincher
Should have been nominated: Christopher Nolan
Picture
Will win: The King's Speech
Should win: The Social Network
Should have been nominated: Shutter Island, The Ghost Writer, Harry Potter
i've begun to have doubts about TSN winning best score, but i'm sticking to my guns. that is one category where i'll actually be pretty upset if it doesn't win, because it deserves it. Also, while i've maintained the frontrunner predictions for Actress, S. Actor, and S. Actress, i'm gonna predict there will be an upset in at least one of those categories (Annette Bening, Geoffrey Rush, or Steinfeld/Weaver/Carter). i'm still very unsure about Art Direction and Costumes, so i've defaulted to King's Speech. Also, if all the hype about a King's Speech sweep proves to be unfounded, look for an upset in Original Screenplay as well.
that's it, these are my final best guesses, we'll see what happens tonight.
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