Keepin' on keepin' on

and here's some more for ya.

Sound Editing
(again, i believe this is the category about actual aesthetic sound design)

Inception
Toy Story 3
Tron: Legacy
True Grit
Unstoppable

i've now seen all the movies here, but i must admit Tron and Unstoppable were good, but not dvd quality bootlegs.  Regardless, i doubt either have a real shot at winning here.  True Grit did win a guild award a couple days ago, but i doubt it will actually win here - a wider set of voters will reward it in cinematography and possible supporting actress.  My pick would be for Toy Story 3.  7 of the last 8 Pixar films have been nominated in this category, and only The Incredibles won.  i find it baffling that films that literally have to create and record every single sound we hear (aside from dialogue) do not win more often.  That said, Inception is the most critically acclaimed of the technical wonders this year, and will likely win here.  Like many of the categories this year, a well-deserved probable win, but not the one i'd most like to see. 

That said, the sound categories are notoriously difficult to predict, and i'm even starting to have doubts about the Sound Mixing prediction i made earlier....i'm starting to think either True Grit or The Social Network have a chance at an upset there.  But this one should be squarely in Inception's corner.

Song
"Coming Home" from Country Strong
"I See the Light" from Tangled
"If I Rise" from 127 Hours
"We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3

This is another tough one.  i haven't actually seen Country Strong or Tangled, but that's less important in this category.  Having listened through all the songs today, i have to admit i find "I See the Light" to be a little simplistic and cheesy, not likely to actually win i don't think.  i understand that for a while "If I Rise" was the frontrunner here....but honestly, that song is terrible.  It is dull and lethargic.  There's a chance people are looking for a chance to reward the film somewhere, but i can't imagine many people actually think this the best song from movies this year.  i admit bias here in that i have a passionate grudge against A.R. Rahman for beating Thomas Newman and Wall-E and i can't abide the thought of him winning a 3rd and/or 4th Oscar this year.  At least this time the lyrics are in one language... 

It looks to me like this is between "Coming Home" and "We Belong Together."  Honestly, i don't mind if either win - i think if people actually listen to the music, there's a chance for "Coming Home" which is actually a really good song, but more likely i think is Randy Newman (on his 20th nomination with only 1 win), the chance to give Toy Story 3 more than just one win in Animated Picture, and the really really good and fun song that is "We Belong Together."


(I'm holding off on Best Score until i have the chance to listen through the whole score for Inception on Youtube like i have for the other nominees.)

Best Actress
Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman - Black Swan
Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine

Lawrence totally carried her film, but she's young and there are better in the category this year.  Williams was very good but the film's too small, and this just isn't here year.  Kidman's already won, and she needs to do a few more good performances like this before she'll actually get to win again.  This is clearly a race between Portman and Bening.  Portman is obviously the frontrunner, and she will probably not suffer the upset from Bening.  However, Bening has more previous nominations (3 to Portman's 1), and there is criticism of Portman's performance as too "showy," while Bening creates a nuanced, emotional performance of a person who seems like she might actually exist in the real world.  My pick would be Bening, as i think it legitimately is the better performance, but i have to predict Portman as i don't see the upset as very likely.  Portman was excellent, don't get me wrong, and this won't go down in history as a great mistake on the Academy's part, but i do think it's not the most deserving win.

Adapted Screenplay
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

The Social Network, all the way.  i cannot imagine there being such a backlash against this movie that it loses this category.  That's what people thought about Up in the Air last year, i know, but this has got to be even more of a lock.  Somehow Sorkin wrote A Few Good Men, The American President, and Charlie Wilson's War without ever getting nominated, and he's gonna make up for it here with the best screenplay not only of this year but of the last several years.  Sorkin and Firth (for best actor) have got to be the two most locked locks of the year.