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Art Direction
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Pt. 1
Inception
The King's Speech
True Grit

Honestly, i can imagine any one of these winning.  The King's Speech is riding a wave of support in general, but i still don't imagine it pulling a total sweep, and it doesn't really deserve the win here.  Alice in Wonderland i feel the same about as i did with Avatar last year - i can't tell where the visual effects end and the art direction begins...it seems like most of the credit should belong with the special effects teams than the designers, and the designs honestly didn't really do much for me - most of the time i thought they were just trying to do too much visually with this movie, and the effect was to come off jumbled and mismatched - it really is a pretty ugly movie.  True Grit got 10 nominations, which is a lot, and people are wondering if that means it'll get some surprise wins in these types of categories.  i don't see it happening here, since the art direction demands here seems fairly simple for a period piece.  My personal preference is for Harry Potter to win here, though i doubt it will happen - i'm keeping my fingers crossed for part 2 next year to finally win a few for the franchise.  For my money, i think Inception is the likely and very deserving winner.  Several dream worlds, all distinct and imaginative, from the Japanese castle to the James Bond-esque snow fort, from the hotel to Cobb and Mal's "memory lane," consistent, effective work.  i'll predict Inception will pull it out, but a King's Speech sweep could make me eat my words.

Cinematography
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

This is really up between Inception and True Grit.  It seems to me that the camera in Black Swan was a little too focused on making sure we didn't see Natalie Portman's legs while she danced, and that got on my nerves.  A lot of people will find the odd composition and framing of The King's Speech to be a little too, i dunno, calling attention to itself, to merit a win.  The Social Network had some tremendous photography, but i don't think anyone really credits the camera it for the success of the movie as much as Fincher's being behind it.  True Grit had some great work from the now 9-time Oscar nominee (never the winner) Roger Deakins, but i've gotta be honest, i'm not sure it's his best work and he did have the template of the first movie for several sequences...  My pick would be Inception, again citing the juggling of several different feels and looks of the various dream environments, but also the different sorts of narratives - photographing action in world and suspense in another, and always giving the viewer just enough info on the screen to not overload us.  Not to mention the floating/rolling hotel sequences which still totally blow my mind.  My preference: Inception, but i'm still gonna predict that True Grit and Roger Deakins get the sympathy/career respect vote, and the desire to reward the movie with a statue or two.  And it's not like this would be an undeserving win, just not the one i personally would go for.  (i still say Inglourious Basterds should have had it over Avatar last year...)

Film Editing
Black Swan
The Fighter
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network

Again, i think Black Swan was trying to conceal things from us (like Natalie Portman's legs... not like plot things).  I'm shocked to see 127 Hours here if only because that tri-fold thing they did was so enormously distracting - totally calling attention to the post-prod, and just clawing at ways to make the movie more interesting or visceral - really bugged me.  The King's Speech...not sure that the editing did much here, and same for The Fighter - both were really just piecing the story together effectively.  My preference and prediction are both for The Social Network here - the editing here really propels the narrative - it turned shouldabeen boring scenes like uploading photos into heists - it helped keep a 160-page script not only under 2 hrs, but really interesting and compelling and exciting and totally coherent all at the same time.  This just seems like an obvious call to me.


Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale - The Fighter
John Hawkes - Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner - The Town
Mark Ruffalo - The Kid's Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech

John Hawkes will not win, as his nomination was a surprise and it likely took the place of Andrew Garfield who not only should have been nominated, but should have pulled an upset win for giving one of the best performances of the whole dang year in The Social Network.  Also, Jeremy Renner was very good, but not really mind-blowing i didn't think - it's just a Boston spin on the Joe Pesci thing.  Mark Ruffalo is a very likable actor who played a very likable character and, at least to me, somehow gave a really annoying performance.  i should have liked him (despite the story about him sleeping with the married lesbian), but i just found him really annoying and aggravating at times.

This is really a race between Bale, the frontrunner, and Rush, possibly pulling the come-from-behind upset riding The King's Speech wave.  i have to admit, i have never like Christian Bale as an actor, i find something about him really annoying.  i will not deny that he gave an exceptional performance in The Fighter, a film i didn't really care for either.  However, it's a really flashy, showy performance, and i'd just personally like to see performances awarded where the acting goes on a little more below the surface.  i think that Rush deserves this win over Bale - consider that without Rush, the entire premise of The King's Speech is blank.  Not just his character, but his performance - if his performance were anything less than what it was, the movie would have flopped, or at least not been as successful as it is, because no one would have known why they were watching it.  If we're going to reward Firth for a movie that is essentially about a friendship, how can we not reward the other half of the relationship?  However, i cannot in conscience make an actual prediction for Rush, as that really would be the upset of the year - Bale has been winning everything, he's never been nominated though he's enormously respected, plus it's a chance (along with supp. actress) to reward The Fighter since it won't get anything else.  Prediction: Bale, preference: Rush.  (i'll be excited to get this prediction wrong.)