Wrapping up

i'm gonna try an power through all the rest of the categories now.

Visual Effects

Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Pt. 1
Hereafter
Inception
Iron Man 2

Iron Man's effects were kind of sloppy, i though, and Alice looked (unintentionally) cartoonish.  Hereafter's nomination is confusing to most people, though it is the one film here i've not seen, so i can't speak well to it.  Suffice it to say, it has basically no chance of winning.  i personally would pick Harry Potter and would select it to win.  However, logic tells me otherwise, so my prediction is for Inception, which also had some pretty outstanding effects, and would make a deserving winner.

Makeup
Barney's Version
The Way Back
The Wolfman
 
The only film here i've seen is The Wolfman, and most predictions say it will win here, which makes sense to me (though i'm always partial to aging makeup like in Barney's Version, will seldom gets to win here, frequently overshadowed by creature designs).  So let's predict Wolfman, though Barney's Version might surprise.

Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland
I Am Love
The King's Speech
The Tempest
True Grit

This category is one of the harder to predict this year, along with Art Direction, because there isn't even a frontrunner and a possible spoiler, but several films that could easily win and deserve it.  The Tempest is the one here i've not seen, but from the trailers, i suspect i would prefer it most in this category.  However, it will likely not win.  This category is a bit of a toss-up between Alice in Wonderland and The King's Speech.  I Am Love is a truly outstanding movie, with some nice upper-class Italian dresses that really nail down the characters, but it's too contemporary to actually win here.  True Grit would also be deserving, but it's unlikely.  i'm not totally sure what all the costumes in King's Speech did for the film other than accurately place the period, but it appears to have the edge over the competition, so i'll predict it (though the more i predict for King's Speech, the more likely it seems to sweep, which isn't a thought i like...), but i am partial to the designs in The Tempest, and really all of Julie Taymor's films.

Original Score
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network

How to Train Your Dragon was wonderful, but not really quite a winner, in my mind.  Inception, the same thing.  It had the now kind of iconic BWOMP thing going, but there were several times in the movie where i actually think the music was very distracting.  It's nice that after a decade of snubs, Hans Zimmer is getting recognition again, but this isn't the one to win it again for him.  i think that in 127 Hours, Rahman rips off sounds from a half a dozen other composers, like Zimmer, Rachel Portman, John Williams, even Thomas Newman, and there's one riff that basically sounds like the intro to Eminem's "Lose Yourself" on loop...
Anyway, this appears to be between The King's Speech, going for a sweep and a win for the three-time loser Alexandre Desplat, and The Social Network, which it seems most people think actually deserves to win.  For me, it's not Desplat's score is bad or weak, it's actually quite appropriate for the film...but i think he wrote two other scores this year that were actually better and he wasn't nominated for them - The Ghost Writer and HP7.  Also, i'd be surprised if anyone actually believes this was the best score of the year.  The Social Network's score created an entire mood and atmosphere for the film that would have been totally different with a soundtrack or something lighter.  It's a tremendous piece of work, and deserves to win here, and i think that it actually will hold off the surge from The King's Speech, so i predict The Social Network.

Best Actor
Javier Bardem - Biutiful
Jeff Bridges - True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network
Colin Firth - The King's Speech
James Franco - 127 Hours

i've still be unable to find Biutiful to watch somewhere, so i can't speak about Bardem here, though i suspect he is excellent as always.  That said, this really is Firth's to lose.  Some people criticize that, thinking it's just making up for losing last year, but let's be honest, he is absolutely phenomenal here.  It's a much smaller, more detailed and nuanced performance than the naysayers are giving it credit for.  James Franco and Jeff Bridges did good work, but i suspect that there are possibly other actors who could have given performances of a similar caliber.  Eisenberg was really just as good as Firth and would also deserve to win, and as some have pointed out, he actually had a much more challenging role, in terms of playing an unlikable protagonist and getting the audience's sympathy without necessarily making him more likable.  Firth's sympathy factor was built in - Oh, he's got a stammer.  Aw, everyone is looking at him.  Oh my, his daddy's mean to him.  So in that respect, Eisenberg's accomplishment might be more notable.  But the prediction has to be for Firth.  In any other year, Eisenberg.

Best Original Screenplay
Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech

This will probably go to The King's Speech.  Inception has the best chance at an upset here, if people are feeling a lot of support for the film and still upset about Nolan missing a director nod.  personally, i'd like to see it go to Another Year or The Kids Are All Right, but can see that's unlikely (although this will sadly be Another Year's writer Mike Leigh's seventh Oscar loss).  Plus, The King's Speech has an excellent screenplay, and it wouldn't be the worst thing ever if it wins.

Best Director
Darren Aronofsky - Black Swan
Joel and Ethan Coen - True Grit
David Fincher - The Social Network
Tom Hooper - The King's Speech
David O. Russell - The Fighter

Here is yet another question of King's Speech and Social Network.  At this point, it's just unclear as to how big King's Speech will win.  Actor, obviously, Picture and Screenplay, probably, but Art Direction?  Cosumes?  Sound Mixing?  Supporting Actor?  Supporting Actress even?  It could go either way in almost every category.  i think David Fincher is going to keep his place here.  He's well respected, and people want to give him an award.  There's also the idea that Hooper was less essential to his film than Fincher was to his.  And plus, in times of doubt, it's helpful to remember that Fincher really actually did do the best direction of the year.  So, prediction and preference: David Fincher

Best Picture
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

First off, in my opinion, Winter's Bone, 127 Hours, and The Fighter shouldn't even be here.  They should be replaced by Shutter Island, The Ghost Writer, and Harry Potter.  But whatever, i can't fix that.  This is the question of The King's Speech and The Social Network, and if The Social Network can get enough support to come from behind with the upset.  i've seen a few websites that did the math and predicted a Social Network upset with almost absolute certainty.  It has something to do with the way they do the math with the ballots - if Social Network gets enough #1 rankings and enough #2 rankings, and The King's Speech doesn't get enough #2 rankings, then, well, who knows?

To be clear, i loved The King's Speech, i thought it was an exceptional film, just not the best of the year.  And considering how few Best Of lists it made, a lot of people actually didn't think so either.  So i'm not sure how it got here as the frontrunner, except that it was well-made, and it sure does make you feel happy, doesn't it?  So, i'll predict The King's Speech because i'm not as confident in all the intricacies involved with an upset, though my preference is obviously for The Social Network, and i'll be extra thrilled if it deservedly wins, considering, you know, it actually is the best movie of the year. 


now, on to the awards that are practically impossible to get all right!

Best Documentary Feature
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Gasland
Inside Job
Restrepo
Waste Land

i've seen Exit Through the Gift Shop, and intend to watch some of the others tonight and tomorrow.  From what i've read on this category, a lot of people are predicting Inside Job, but saying that Exit Through the Gift Shop is the best one.  Considering that this is one of the categories where you have to have seen all 5 nominees in order to vote (as are the rest of the categories i'm gonna get to here), i suspect that if people are saying one is the best, that that is the one most people will vote for.  So i'm gonna predict Exit Through the Gift Shop.

Best Documentary Short
Killing in the Name
Poster Girl
Strangers No More
Sun Come Up
The Warriors of Quigang

Uh, Strangers No More.  Because someone else said so.

Best Foreign Language Film
Biutiful
Dogtooth
In a Better World
Incendies
Outside the Law

Again, i've not seen any of these (but i'll try to at least watch one before tomorrow).  In a Better World appears to be the favorite, but this category is notorious for surprise winners.  So i'm not positive what will happen.

Best Animated Short
Day & Night  (you know, it's the one that played before Toy Story 3)
The Gruffalo
Let's Pollute
The Lost Thing
Madagascar, carnet de voyage

Well i've seen Day & Night and i've seen The Gruffalo, and i thought Day & Night was better, so let's go with that.

Best Live Action Short
The Confession
The Crush
God of Love
Na wewe
Wish 143

God of Love.  Because i heard it somewhere.


So, all right, that's all.  i'll post again summarizing my predictions/preferences, and some tallies.  Peace.